LCP: £55bn UK buy-ins hinge on ‘highly attractive’ pricing
Insurer capacity is put at up to £70bn; reaching the top of the range would beat the £49.1bn record set in 2023.
LCP’s 5 January annual look-ahead forecast said UK buy-in volumes could reach £55bn, with insurer capacity estimated at up to £70bn, putting a new market high within reach if pricing remains favourable. Reaching the upper end of the range would surpass the £49.1bn high recorded in 2023, while confirmed 2025 volumes were expected to exceed £40bn once insurers published full-year results in March.
The capacity estimate rests on stronger scheme funding, a substantial transaction pipeline and competitive insurer pricing. LCP said the top end of the forecast depended on the continuation of the “highly attractive” pricing seen over the prior year, alongside the pipeline reported by insurers.
The investment backdrop remains central to transaction economics. In its 2025 pension risk transfer report, LCP said higher gilt yields directly reduce buy-in prices, lowering volumes, all else equal, and that the timing and size of large transactions are likely to be the biggest single factor driving future annual volumes.
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